Category Archives: Analytics Education

RFM and Customer LifeCycles

Jim answers questions from fellow Drillers

Topic Overview

Hi again folks, Jim Novo here.

Today we’ve got a bit of confusion between RFM and Customer Lifecycles, but that’s a situation we’ve been dealing with for 30 years so not really an issue. Sure, it can be confusing. Reality is, these two ideas are related in some ways but not remotely the same in other ways. Plus, each is very good at accomplishing the job it was designed to do – as long as the user understands the problem to be solved and the specific purpose / output of each approach.

So, you want to understand these ideas better? OK, get ready for the Drillin’ …

Q:  I have a small sampling of the RFM scores that correspond to the various lifecycle stages.  For instance, 111 & 112 correspond to the acquisition stage, 333 & 443 to the growth stage, etc.  However, I’m looking for a complete listing of all 125 possible RFM scores and their corresponding lifecycle stages.

Can you please send this my way?

A: Wow, I certainly hope you didn’t get this idea from me; if you did, I have done a terrible job of explaining something somewhere. I would be very interested in the source of this idea, that a LifeCycle stage can correspond to a single RFM code or score.

An RFM code or score is the ranking of a single customer against all other customers for likelihood to respond and future value at a specific point in time. High scores equal high future value; low scores equal low future value.

A single RFM score represents this ranking at a fixed point in time – the day the scores were created. There is no “cycle,” which implies “over time,” inherent in an RFM code. Only if you knew the previous RFM code or sequence of codes could you imply a “LifeCycle stage”. This is, of course, what my book is about – using a modified version of RFM to track and profitably act on customer LifeCycle behavior. If you know the LifeCycle, you can predict behavior. If you can predict behavior, you can dramatically improve marketing ROI.

If a customer is a 333, you don’t know if they are falling or growing into it. They could be coming from above it – falling in value, or coming from below it – rising in value. For example, most new customers start at a 51x – they have to, because by definition, they are “new” (R = 5) but have bought once (F = 1). But this same customer 3 months from now might be a 555 or a 222 – either ramping up or sliding into oblivion. If you don’t know what their score used to be, you can’t imply anything about a “cycle” or any “stage” in the relationship with the customer.

That said, customers in the 111 and 112 are typically old, defected customers – not new or “acquisition stage” customers as you called them. All customers start in the high numbers and work their way down into the low numbers throughout their lifecycle. The question is how long will it take to get from high to low, and can you do anything to slow this process or stop it. The scores tell you if what you are doing is working, and how to drive profitability following the two fundamental rules of High ROI Customer Marketing:

  1. Don’t spend until you have to
  2. When you spend, spend at the point of
    maximum impact

If you are looking for some generalized system, I wouldn’t worry about the detail of 125 RFM codes, there is really no meaning there unless you have millions of customers. The most important variable, from a LifeCycle perspective, is usually Recency, so you could roughly categorize the LifeCycle of customer into 5 blocks using the R score. The second two variables, F and M, are not so much about the lifecycle of the customer, but the value of the customer now and in the case of F (sometimes), future value. Any customer with a low R value but high “FM” value was a very valuable customer that isn’t a customer anymore. In terms of Lifecycle, they are at the end. In terms of value, they are at the top.

For more on actually putting these ideas on measuring and tracking Customer LifeCycle into practice, check out these series, in order of perhaps the most logical way to learn the concepts:

Customer Defection Rejection

Trip Wire Marketing

Measuring Engagement

and for a higher level / deeper structure / management view, see here:

Framework for Engagement

Jim

go next

Get the book at Booklocker.com

Find Out Specifically What is in the Book

Learn Customer Marketing Concepts and Metrics (site article list)

Download the first 9 chapters of the Drilling Down book: PDF 




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When Do Former Best Customers Become a Lost Cause?

Jim answers questions from fellow Drillers

Topic Overview

Hi again folks, Jim Novo here.

Today we’ve got a bit of confusion between RFM and Customer Lifecycles, but that’s a situation we’ve been dealing with for 30 years so not really an issue. Sure, it can be confusing. Reality is, these two ideas are related in some ways but not remotely the same in other ways. Plus, each is very good at accomplishing the job it was designed to do – as long as the user understands the problem to be solved and the specific purpose / output of each approach.

So, you want to understand these ideas better? OK, get ready for the Drillin’ …

This time, a Real World question from a practitioner who wants to prove to management they have to spend less to make more money. Spend less to make more? How could that be, and what kind of person would want to go down this road? A real world Driller, of course …

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Q: I’m a “long time listener, first time caller,” and a big fan of your site and your approach to data-driven marketing.  I also have two copies of your book – one was not enough.

A: Well, thanks for your kind words. I love the talk radio reference, that is so funny.  Never though about it like that, but makes perfect sense!  Glad to know I’m actually helping people with the book too.

Q: I have a question relating to some work I am doing now with our best customers that other users of your site may have.

I work for a medium sized DTC company selling skincare products (high margin) via space ads, direct mail, and online. Our best customer “Gold Club” has about 8000 members at the moment, although members are being promoted and demoted all the time.  

According to my initial analysis, if a member does not purchase a product for more than 60 days, the chances are that they are defecting. I would like to attempt to bring them back with an offer, and leave those that don’t reply for at least 6 months for a deeply discounted “kickstart” offer (although the logistics of sending out very small mailings are a pain.) 

A: This is a common and logical approach, particularly for “renewable products.”  You don’t say what the product is, but if it is “typical” skincare product, it has a sales cycle very tightly tied to product use.  In this case, Latency usually makes more sense to use than Recency as the primary trigger for a campaign.

Continue reading When Do Former Best Customers Become a Lost Cause?


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RF(M) Scoring for Offline Service Businesses

Jim answers questions from fellow Drillers

Topic Overview

Hi again folks, Jim Novo here.

Today we’ve got a bit of confusion between RFM and Customer Lifecycles, but that’s a situation we’ve been dealing with for 30 years so not really an issue. Sure, it can be confusing. Reality is, these two ideas are related in some ways but not remotely the same in other ways. Plus, each is very good at accomplishing the job it was designed to do – as long as the user understands the problem to be solved and the specific purpose / output of each approach.

So, you want to understand these ideas better? OK, get ready for the Drillin’ …

Yea, I know, so much talk about digital … but does this stuff work for offline businesses? It sure does, in fact, these models were originally developed for offline – way before online was even a thing. But because of the ease of data collection, they tend to work even better online! How about for a natural healing center or an accounting practice? Sure thing! Let’s do the Drillin’ …

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Q: I stumbled across your Web site some time ago and have been a regular visitor since.  I find your information very useful.  You will be pleased to know that I purchased your book (Drilling Down) and have just finished going through it.  It all sounds so easy!  Your explanations and examples were wonderful and easy to understand. 

A:   Well, thanks for the kind words.  Would you mind if I used the paragraph above as a testimonial on my web site

Q: Now I will attempt to put it all into practice for two businesses – a Natural Healing Centre (massage, natural medicine etc.), and an Accounting practice. 

A: The healing centre is a pretty straight-up situation; should work very well for them just as described in the book.  The accountant, as a service business with a built-in “forced” cycle (the tax year), a little more complex.  More on this below.

Q:   I have 2 questions though, if I can.

A: Sure!  The two questions below are related, so I will answer them as one.  Only one to a customer!  Just kidding…

Q1: Neither business has a Web Site, so a visit to the workplace, usually means a purchase.  I was intending to have R = last visit, and F = visits over past 12 months.  Will this work?

Q2:   Should I put a timeframe on F?  The way I see it, if I don’t, F will continue to grow for each customer as long as they are a customer.  Whereas if I put a timeframe it will give a better picture of behaviour patterns.

Continue reading RF(M) Scoring for Offline Service Businesses


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