Category Archives: Customer Experience

Choosing Customer Retention Metrics for the Supplements Business

Jim answers questions from fellow Drillers

Topic Overview

Hi again folks, Jim Novo here.

Today we’ve got a bit of confusion between RFM and Customer Lifecycles, but that’s a situation we’ve been dealing with for 30 years so not really an issue. Sure, it can be confusing. Reality is, these two ideas are related in some ways but not remotely the same in other ways. Plus, each is very good at accomplishing the job it was designed to do – as long as the user understands the problem to be solved and the specific purpose / output of each approach.

So, you want to understand these ideas better? OK, get ready for the Drillin’ …

Today’s question is from a fellow Driller who understands customer retention really well but just can’t decide on the best metrics to measure retention in the supplements business. Should he use Customer Retention Rate? Customer Churn Rate? Hurdle Rate? Ahh, to make the right choice here the gory details will need to be visited – so let’s get to the Drillin’ !

Q: Hi Jim,

I am here choosing all the metrics I will use in the coming days to evaluate the health of my business and learn a little bit more about it. I will begin analyzing some basic metrics and then (just after being completely comfortable with the “basic metrics”) I will do some more sophisticated analyses like LTV and RF Grids. (Jim’s Note: RF Grids are advanced customer LifeCycle tracking tools described in my book).

Now I am trying to decide which is the best metric to measure my site’s ability to retain customers. There are three metrics that come to my mind. Customer Retention Rate, Customer Churn Rate and Hurdle Rate.

Customer Retention Rate would be the easiest to measure but the least precise. I could be doing a great job retaining customers but if I am attracting a lot of new customers this metric could give the wrong impression that we are doing more poorly than the last time we measured.

Customer Churn Rate is very easy to calculate when you have a “subscription model business.” If the customer cancels the contract it means a defection. But in my case there is no contract. We sell products. If the customer does not purchase in 30 days it doesn’t mean necessarily that he defected.

The Hurdle Rate based on Recency (45 days for purchase seems to be a good number for the products we sell- natural supplements, based in Brazil) seems to be the best metric I can choose to measure our ability to retain customers over time.

What metric do you think I should be using to measure our ability to retain customers?

A: I think you are one of the smartest IT guys on the subject of database marketing, that does not do database marketing for a living, I have ever met (?) ! Where did you learn this stuff? Did you read a book or something? ;)

Your analysis is absolutely correct on every point, and the approach is on target. If you start simple and work towards more complexity, you will learn more about your customers. And assuming most of your products are roughly a 30 day supply, 45 days is an excellent cut-off for a Hurdle Rate analysis. Simply track the percentage of customers who have made a purchase in the past 45 days over time, perhaps monthly to start. If the percentage is rising, you are getting better at retaining customers. If it is falling, you should be looking for reasons why this is so.

Continue reading Choosing Customer Retention Metrics for the Supplements Business


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Measuring Distributor / Agent Loyalty in Service Businesses

Jim answers questions from fellow Drillers

Topic Overview

Hi again folks, Jim Novo here.

Today we’ve got a bit of confusion between RFM and Customer Lifecycles, but that’s a situation we’ve been dealing with for 30 years so not really an issue. Sure, it can be confusing. Reality is, these two ideas are related in some ways but not remotely the same in other ways. Plus, each is very good at accomplishing the job it was designed to do – as long as the user understands the problem to be solved and the specific purpose / output of each approach.

So, you want to understand these ideas better? OK, get ready for the Drillin’ …

Today we have a fellow Driller looking to compare the “loyalty” of sales / distribution agents for insurance products and use this information to manage business with the agents more effectively. In this case, knowledge of the business is exceedingly important because segmentation of business lines across regions will dramatically improve predictions.

Let’s do some Drillin’!

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Q: Hi Jim,

I happened upon your site and found the information there very valuable – so much so that I ordered your book (customer is referring to Drilling Down).

A: Well, thank you very much for that!

Q: I’m a marketing manager with an insurance company that distributes its life, auto, home, and business insurance products through independent insurance agents.  These agents represent our company as well as others.

I’m interested in techniques for measuring agent loyalty – which I think would be demonstrated by the agents choosing to place business with our company instead of another company they represent for policies.

A: I’m not sure in this case anything is too terribly different from the scenarios used in the book. Essentially, agents or consumers demonstrate loyalty though their actions, and if you can track their actions, you can spot increasing or decreasing loyalty.  Your business is more complex in many ways than retail, but to the consumer (in your case agent), there are always choices to be made between alternatives, and changes in the purchase patterns agents or consumers generate often precede customer defection.

Continue reading Measuring Distributor / Agent Loyalty in Service Businesses


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RF(M) Scoring for Offline Service Businesses

Jim answers questions from fellow Drillers

Topic Overview

Hi again folks, Jim Novo here.

Today we’ve got a bit of confusion between RFM and Customer Lifecycles, but that’s a situation we’ve been dealing with for 30 years so not really an issue. Sure, it can be confusing. Reality is, these two ideas are related in some ways but not remotely the same in other ways. Plus, each is very good at accomplishing the job it was designed to do – as long as the user understands the problem to be solved and the specific purpose / output of each approach.

So, you want to understand these ideas better? OK, get ready for the Drillin’ …

Yea, I know, so much talk about digital … but does this stuff work for offline businesses? It sure does, in fact, these models were originally developed for offline – way before online was even a thing. But because of the ease of data collection, they tend to work even better online! How about for a natural healing center or an accounting practice? Sure thing! Let’s do the Drillin’ …

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Q: I stumbled across your Web site some time ago and have been a regular visitor since.  I find your information very useful.  You will be pleased to know that I purchased your book (Drilling Down) and have just finished going through it.  It all sounds so easy!  Your explanations and examples were wonderful and easy to understand. 

A:   Well, thanks for the kind words.  Would you mind if I used the paragraph above as a testimonial on my web site

Q: Now I will attempt to put it all into practice for two businesses – a Natural Healing Centre (massage, natural medicine etc.), and an Accounting practice. 

A: The healing centre is a pretty straight-up situation; should work very well for them just as described in the book.  The accountant, as a service business with a built-in “forced” cycle (the tax year), a little more complex.  More on this below.

Q:   I have 2 questions though, if I can.

A: Sure!  The two questions below are related, so I will answer them as one.  Only one to a customer!  Just kidding…

Q1: Neither business has a Web Site, so a visit to the workplace, usually means a purchase.  I was intending to have R = last visit, and F = visits over past 12 months.  Will this work?

Q2:   Should I put a timeframe on F?  The way I see it, if I don’t, F will continue to grow for each customer as long as they are a customer.  Whereas if I put a timeframe it will give a better picture of behaviour patterns.

Continue reading RF(M) Scoring for Offline Service Businesses


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