The following is from the January 2010 Drilling Down Newsletter. Got a question about Customer Measurement, Management, Valuation, Retention, Loyalty, Defection? Just ask your question. Also, feel free to leave a comment and I’ll reply.
Q: Thank you for your recent article about Control Groups. Our organization launched an online distance learning program this past August, and I’ve just completed some student behavior analysis for this past semester.
Using weekly RF-Scores based on Recently and Frequently they’ve logged in to courses within the previous three weeks, I’m able to assess their “Risk Level”– how likely they are to stop using the program. We had a percentage who discontinued the program, but in retrospect, their login behavior and changes in their login behavior gave strong indication they were having trouble before they completely stopped using it.
A: Fantastic! I have spoken with numerous online educators about this application of Recency – Frequency modeling, as well online research subscriptions, a similar behavioral model. All reported great results predicting student / subscriber defection rates.
Q: I’m preparing to propose a program for the upcoming semester where we contact students by email and / or phone when their login behavior gives indication that they’re having trouble. My hope is that by proactively contacting these students, we can resolve issues or provide assistance before things escalate to the point they defect completely.
A: Absolutely, the yield (% students / revenue retained) on a project like this should be excellent. Plus, you will end up learning a lot about “why”, which will lead to better executions of the “potential dropout” program the more you test it.