Archive for the ‘DataBase Marketing’ Category

A Budget for Discounts?

Tuesday, December 30th, 2008

The following is from the December 2008 Drilling Down Newsletter

Got a question about Customer Measurement, Management, Valuation, Retention, Loyalty, Defection?  Go ahead and send it to me here.  If on the topic below, please leave a comment.

A Budget for Discounts?

Q:  For the first time ever, we have a Discount budget built into our financial plan.  We’ve been told this number in the budget is less than we used last year, but our Sales target is a bit higher.  We’re supposed to hit our sales targets while at the same time not going over budget with our Discounts to generate those sales.  This directive comes from Finance.

A:  You have just been offered the opportunity to graduate from Advertising to Marketing!

Q:  We are fairly sure if we reduce the discounts we give, response is going to fall and so are sales, especially from best customers.  Or we could keep the same discounts but do fewer discount promotions, with probably the same effect on sales.  Are there any other alternatives, any ideas on how to manage this discount budget issue? 

We’re an online only retailer.

A:  Sure, ask an easy one over the holidays!

Seriously, I hope you did not take my comment about graduating from Advertising to Marketing the wrong way.  This is really an opportunity for you to shine in so many ways, and to learn a lot of new ideas in the process – if you want to take advantage of it.

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Crime of Social Passion

Friday, December 19th, 2008

Ron Shevlin killed his blog.  It was exactly 2 years old.

I started blogging about a week after Ron did, and somehow we found each other, along with Adelino.  For a time there, it seemed like the 3 of us were the only ones reading each other’s blogs.

Ron’s blog was uncommonly good and very well liked by his followers.  He says he set out to create a “Top 10 Marketing blog”, not really knowing what that meant.  You know, Technorati and all that.  As part of his sign-off, he states:

Needless to say, I failed miserably in achieving my goal. 

And thank God for that. Because if I had really wanted to this to become a top 10 blog I would had to have written about a lot of things that I don’t really care about writing about.

So true.  In fact, those of us who write a lot of material that runs against what is taken for “common knowledge” in Marketing – as Ron did – feel his pain.  I’ve done the same since 2000 in my newsletter

So, what is the point of Social Media?  If people are only going to listen to what their “friends” say, and if people only subscribe to authors they agree with, then you get this massive group think effect that is impossible to penetrate when the quality of the material is ranked by “popularity”.  And on top of that, the absolute crap that is published over and over begins to be taken for the truth.

It’s no wonder onliners are not learning anything.

And keep repeating past mistakes

You can’t disagree with popular bloggers.  

Telling the truth can even get you blacklisted.

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NCDM 08: What was Hot?

Friday, December 12th, 2008

With two very intense days of 5-track sessions going at NCDM 08, it was difficult to pay attention to everything that was going on.  Still, by picking up handouts from sessions I did not go to, I could get a sense of what the hot topics were this year:

1.  Web Plays Data Friendly - Almost every session had a web component in it, the BI folks are getting it done.  The data is coming off the web / out of web analytics and into the data warehouse so everybody knows what is really going on. 

Much of this work is being done by the big service bureaus, not the companies themselves, as far as I could tell.  Web Intelligence, baby.

2.  Media Mix Models – which typically show online Display advertising as a poor choice for allocating marketing budget to when you are also running offline media; the yield is quite poor versus almost every other media.  Search, as you might expect, Rocks on Productivity, though TV still rules for Productivity and moving the needle.

The implication here is you’d be much better off running TV to generate / amplify Search behavior than running Display to do the same.  Offline for Awareness, Online for Intent / Desire

3.  Contact Optimization – I’ve written before about what ultimately happens when you don’t have a Contact Strategy.  At some point, BI will measure the bottom line impact of every division in the company pounding customers with the division’s own contact strategy (Hint: you are driving your customers crazy).  Then, move all customer contact to a centralized model which controls contact by source of new customer and value generated, measured through controlled testing.

This movement should not be surprising, given the whole “customer in control” and “social” movements which onliners give so much lip service to but never take action on.  Well, not never, but rarely.

4.  Measuring Engagement – yes, Engagement.  OFFLINE, as well as online.  The overwhelming message was this: it does not make any sense, and actually costs you money, to keep pounding your customers with any kind of communication when they don’t respond / interact.  You can measure dis-Engagement, and when you see it, you should stop communicating – online or offline. 

And these folks proved it, over and over, with real math.  See related #3 above.  If you’d like to see a detailed e-mail example of this concept, check out this case study.

And of course:  Models and more models.  Like Hierarchical Bayesian and Disaggregate Discrete Choice.

Boy, I love it when you talk like that.

 

NCDM Show – you going?

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008

Next week I will be moderating a panel at the NCDM show. 

Don’t know NCDM?  If you’re a web analyst interested in what happens in BI from a Marketing perspective, this is the show for you – National Center for Database Marketing

I’m moderating a “shootout” panel titled Web Analytics Solutions Showdown: How Do You Measure Customer Engagement? with panelists Barry Parshall from WebTrends, John Squire from Coremetrics, and David Kirschner from Omniture (Jon Gibson / ClickTracks had to drop out).

No right or wrong answers for this session, mostly a demonstration of how different WA platforms approach the challenge of “Measuring Engagement” differently.  Just tell us what you believe “Engagement” is and how it is measured with your tool using a case study.

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Offline Engagement Modeling

Wednesday, November 26th, 2008

The following is from the November 2008 Drilling Down Newsletter.  Got a question about Customer Measurement, Management, Valuation, Retention, Loyalty, Defection?  Just ask your question.  Also, feel free to leave a comment. 

Want to see the answers to previous questions?  The pre-blog newsletter archives are here.

Offline Engagement Modeling

Q:  In our business (airline) – particularly on the loyalty side – we’ve been using both RFM as well as lifetime and current cumulative totals.  For instance in our mileage program, we look at both lifetime miles earned and used as well as current balance. 

Does that seem appropriate?

A:  Well, I guess the question is appropriate for what purpose, what action are you driving to?

For example, if you were to divide metrics into “strategic” and “tactical”, meaning “for management / long-term planning” and “for campaigns / taking short-term action” then you get different answers.

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Webcast on Web Intelligence 11/19

Tuesday, November 18th, 2008

Speaking of Web Intelligence, if you are interested in experiencing what the world of web analytics looks like when it meets Business Intelligence, the WAA and our Certificate partner for Web Intelligence, UC Irvine, are doing a Free webcast on this topic. 

Jim Humphrys has the research on salaries and demand in the sector, Shaina Boone of Critical Mass is the practitioner who has both taken the Certificate classes and is applying this knowledge in the real world, and Bernie Jeltema is a UCI Instructor for the Certificate classes.

Here’s the official description:

UCI Webinar: Certificate in Web Intelligence
Wednesday 19-Nov-08 2:30 PM to 3:30 PM EDT

Web Intelligence is a combination of web analytics and business intelligence. As companies expand their reach into the global marketplace, the need to analyze how customers use their web sites to learn about products and make buying decisions is becoming increasingly critical for survival and success.  Wondering how to position yourself for these career opportunities and how specific coursework can be valuable?  This planning session will provide pre-registration educational and career advancement advisement. Also learn more about the web intelligence certificate program, courses being offered in upcoming quarters, and career planning resources available through the UC Irvine Extension and the University of British Columbia, Continuing Studies

  • Jim Humphrys, WL Gore, co-chair, WAA Research Committee
  • Shaina Boone, Critical Mass
  • Bernie Jeltema, Instructor in Business Intelligence, consultant in field
  • To register visit: http://unex.uci.edu/certificates/it/web_intel/

    On this page, you can either sign up to “Stay Informed” about the program (green bar) or Register for the webcast in the box below this bar, which is called Web Intelligence Education Planning Session.

    Lab Store: Frequent Buyer Analysis

    Tuesday, November 11th, 2008

    Every year just before the holiday season we take a look at the customer database for the Lab Store - the online retail biz my wife runs – and see what’s up with 10x or more buyers.

    I often prefer to look at “worst case” data when doing customer analysis; this way you don’t over-estimate the Potential Value of the business going forward.  The beginning of the 4th Quarter is a good time to do this since “holiday” really hasn’t kicked in yet, so you don’t have those buying influences skewing the natural activity in the customer database.

    At the end of September, we took a look at all customers, no matter when they became customers,  who have purchased from us at least 10 times - a best customer analysis.  Considering a “year” to be 9/30 to 9/29,  we bucketed them by when their last purchase was - past year, 2 years ago, 3 years ago, 4 or more years ago (the business started 5 years ago).

    Here are the results:

    Last purchase date was in               Percentage of all 10x or more Buyers

    9/30/07 -  9/29/08                                 75%

    9/30/06 -  9/29/07                                 12%

    9/30/05 -  9/29/06                                   8%

    9/30/04 -  9/29/05                                   5%

    If this data is still confusing, the second line above would read, “Of all customers who have ever bought 10x or more, 12% last purchased in the period 9/30/06 -  9/29/07.

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    Web Intelligence

    Friday, November 7th, 2008

    As I said in an earlier comment, I didn’t get to see many of the sessions at eMetrics DC due to a raft of WAA stuff and great interactions with the people at the show outside the sessions.  But I have seen a lot of commentary, notably from Gary, Judah, and Eric, and related, from Christopher, on the overall message.

    I have to say I agree (or is it have agreed?) – web analytics is headed for the BI shop.  In what form, we can only speculate.  But I have a few ideas, and a great resource that could be quite helpful depending on where you want to go with your analytical career.

    The Google Analytics API, for one thing, is going to be huge from a BI perspective.  Just exactly what you have access to and in what format will be an issue for some BI folks, who tend to want “all of it”.

    If BI really wants all the data, WebTrends was talking about cleaving the reporting from the processing – just like a traditional BI scenario, where the analytics app sits on top of any warehouse.  But I think in general most BI folks are over-thinking this issue and in time, they are going to be more satisfied with the “right” data, as opposed to “all”.

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    New Online Marketing Model First?

    Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

    Well, the call for a new Online Marketing Requirements doc to correct the Wrong Model, Dumb Money problem did not get much traction so far.  So I’m thinking maybe you need a new Online Marketing Model first to hang the Requirements doc on.  Fair enough.

    Here’s the challenge: I don’t think there is a universal enough agreement on what online brings to the Marketing party.  Sure, it gets explained in tons of ways, but for the most part these explanations are all Tactical stuff – do this, get that.

    That’s not good enough, that’s too small, and it’s not unique to online.  CEO’s and CMO’s are looking for the Strategy edge, and they are looking for ways Online is a “logical fit” into the Marketing Mix.  What is online “for”, and perhaps more importantly, what can it do better than what we already have?

    This is important because if you can get to this place, then you have leverage, then you have the ability to draw more money into Online Marketing / Analysis - because it is different.

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    No Requirements Doc for Online Marketing?

    Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008

    Trying to figure out why Online Marketing and the Technology that supports it keeps Repeating Past mistakes, I arrived at the conclusion Technology and Marketing shared the blame by using the Wrong Model and spending Dumb Money, respectively. 

    But I was not satisfied with that conclusion either, still seemed not to be Root Cause – I still had to ask, why?

    Why, with all the smart people around the industry, all the brilliant technology innovation, do we have the Wrong Model / Dumb Money problem?  Why does Online continue to mimic an inferior Offline model, instead of creating a new one, unique to itself?

    Then it hits me.  No requirements doc.  So simple.

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